Predictions - 7 Days Out

Obama in a close race:

Obama - 278
McCain - 260 (McCain carries Florida, Ohio, NC and Virginia)

Obama in a landslide:

Obama - 374
McCain - 164

Take your pick. At this point the best the GOP can hope for is that it's old guard fades away and that the new blood moves the party closer to the center. The idea that reinvigorating the base is sufficient to win a national election is short-sighted. Palin has re-energized the base. Has that moved the GOP into the win column? Not even close.

Remember when the GOP was the big tent party as espoused by Ronald Reagan? I do. Apparently the GOP "leadership" has forgotten that lesson as well as the other basic tenets of the party. The current leadership needs to go - now!

I'm Not Joe Six Pack

I'm not Joe Six Pack although at one point in life my Dad was Joe Twelve Pack. He eventually gave that up and I'm hoping that all of the politicians, particularly Sarah Palin, will give up these ridiculous stereotypes. At various points in my life I've been The Small Business Owner Guy, The Military Family Guy and Joe Jack Daniels. Right now I'd like to be Get Me Out of This Financial Hellhole Guy. Start offering solutions and just maybe people will start to listen.

I guess the real answer is that maybe there aren't really any solutions coming from Wall Street or Washington. John McCain isn't going to solve the problem in the next four weeks. He might have the opportunity to help when he goes back to the Senate but he's not going to get it done from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Stick a fork in him and send Governor Palin back to where she can see Russia from her house.

That leaves Barack Obama. He's going to win and his party's going to control both houses of Congress. So what's the plan? I didn't really hear one in last night's debate. Obama said that energy independence is his number one priority but as usual, no details forthcoming.

I've heard and read the Pickens Plan. It makes sense. It's an option. Are there other options? What's the Obama Plan? Do something bold. Do something audacious. America is willing to sacrifice and work for a specific goal and at the end of the day if we achieve energy independence - Joe Six Pack will love it. Be the next JFK. We're waiting and hoping.

Bailout

I think most of us are still asking the same question about Wall Street - WTF??? Is the bailout a good idea? Who knows, but I have to question the timing. The historical analogy I see the current administration drawing is that this is the greatest crisis on Wall Street since the Great Depression. Okay, I'm willing to take them, Paulson and Bernake, at their word.

That being said, I have to wonder whether anyone in 1929 thought it was a good idea for Herbert Hoover's financial team to guide them out of that great morass. I believe history shows us that the public didn't think so. If memory serves me correctly FDR and the Dems not only got elected in a landslide but then were re-elected three more times.

This doesn't bode well for McCain. Being a member of the party in power is becoming the proverbial albatross around his neck. He admittedly doesn't know much about the economy. He hasn't shown much leadership on the issue and neither has Obama. Obama doesn't have to. He can follow Lincoln's example prior to the 1860 election. Lincoln was an unknown quantity with very little national level experience. He didn't really say much of anything of substance. He was just a better alternative than what the other party had to offer.

I'm not saying that Obama is the next Lincoln or the other extreme - the next Jimmy Carter. What I am saying is that at this point the Palin bounce is gone and I'm beginning to view McCain as the ancient mariner.

Florida, Florida, Florida

Tim Russert put that on a dry erase board during the NBC broadcast of the 2000 election. Those three words said it all. Nothing fancy, nothing flashy or high-tech, just ordinary tools that he put to extraordinary use. That sums up Tim Russert to me. He was an ordinary guy that made the most of his talents and took us along for the ride.

Russert was credited with coining the "red state - blue state" phrase. He made politics understandable and human. He was always prepared. He was always unbiased. He asked the questions that we all wanted the answers to. More often that not he got answers not policy statements.

John McCain described him this way, "Tim Russert was at the top of his profession. He was a man of honesty and integrity. He was hard, but he was always fair."

He was a dutiful son and a proud father. He was named Father of the Year three times by three different organizations, all in different years. After his death was made public, a candlelight vigil was held in his hometown of Buffalo. More than a thousand people turned out. It was held in Tim Russert Park.

Hillary Concedes

Finally. So now what? She's not getting on the ticket. Quit thinking and dreaming like Paul Begala. It's not going to happen, no way. Barack Obama wants and needs to be his own man. If Barack gets elected and things go south the last thing he needs is spooky ol' Uncle Bill in the Blair House with Hillary waiting in the wings for 2012.

If Barack can't get elected then the Democrats better blow up the party and start over. If they can't get elected after 8 years of W then they should start a new party and leave the academics to study the Democratic Party along with the Whig Party. If they need Hillary to win in November then they really have a message of change - like change everything about our leadership and our party's strategy.

So why did Hillary hang on this long or at least past Tuesday. What sense did that make? Was it just vanity, disappointment, dirt on Obama, what was it? We'll probably never know until someone writes a tell-all book, which will probably not be that accurate.

So let me take a guess - How about Justice Hillary. Don't laugh. It could happen. The Supreme Court is going to turn over a justice or two soon and if Barack gets in wouldn't that be a nice repayment for Hillary helping him get elected. She is going to help isn't she?

Edwards Goes out on a Limb

John Edwards has now officially endorsed Barack Obama. Wow. Way to go out on a limb John. My feelings about the endorsement were best summed up in this faux quote from Margaret Bolton - Lighting Technician in The Onion:

"Edwards continues to show real leadership. Most people would have waited until all 50 nominated contests were finished, but this guy stepped up after 47."

I just can't say it any better than that.

Indiana Wants Me! Or Not!

Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Indiana.... For the Democrats it goes on and on and on, well you get the picture. So this is the party that is going to provide new leadership and bring about change?! This is the party that is going to solve the Washington bureaucratic problems and show America a new path to follow. Are you kidding? The Democrats can't even figure out how to seat delegates at a convention, let alone pick a candidate.

Maybe the good folks of Indiana do want a say in who the next President might be. I know the "bitter" people of Pennsylvania got a chance to express their opinions. And what did it matter? We all know the math. We all realize the reality of the situation - neither candidate is going to have enough pledged delegates to capture the nomination. The nomination is going to be decided by the Super Delegates. Get on with it! If not, concede now.

Go ahead, admit it. The Democrats aren't worthy of the White House. None of them possess the leadership qualities to lead the free world. Howard Dean, couldn't lead a Girl Scout cookie drive. Worried about being "Swift Boated" by the GOP? Don't be. You've already done it to yourselves. What's next, a mash-up of Hillary holding hands with the Reverend White dodging sniper fire with Howard yelling "Yeehaw" in the background. If you are a Democrat you have to ask yourself, "How is it possible that we could lose the 2008 Presidential election? How?" The answer is very simple - Leadership!

Isn't leadership what we desire most in a President? It's okay though, keep stumbling along. I'm sure it will all get sorted out in Indiana. Or maybe South Dakota in June. Or maybe at the convention. Or maybe it just won't matter.

Pope Endorses McCain!

I saw a headline today that said "The Boss" had endorsed Barack Obama. I wasn't sure at first if "The Boss" referred to Bruce Springsteen or George Steinbrenner. It turned out to be the former, which is good because I hate the Yankees. I love Springsteen. Love his music. Love what he stands for. But his political endorsement really doesn't sway me any more than one from Pat Robertson or Barbara Streisand. (Didn't she move to Canada after 2004?) I can't really imagine someone thinking "Man, I love Born in the USA. I have to vote for Obama!" Does that make any sense?

Now apparently the mainstream media is waiting for some type of political message (i.e. endorsement) from the Pope. According to published reports, Catholics have backed the winner in 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections. Really? Did someone actually poll all of the Catholics in the US or just a small sampling of six lapsed worshippers in midtown Manhattan? C'mon that statistic sounds like something from a Direct TV ad - 90% of all statistics can be made to say anything 50% of the time. Even if those dubious numbers are accurate did someone turn back the clock to the 17th Century? I just can't see a headline in the NY Times - "Pope Picks President" with an accompanying photo of some candidate kneeling down kissing the Papal ring.

Plus, can the Pope endorse a woman? Because you know that in the Catholic Church a woman can't really hold a position of power. Not that there aren't some powerful nuns out there but no woman is ever going to sit in the Popemobile. I guess that leaves Obama and McCain. Wait, Barack wants "change". And let's be honest, he doesn't seem too thrilled lately with all those gun crazy Midwesterners clinging to their religion, Catholic or not. The Pope definitely can't endorse him . After all the Vatican hasn't endorse change since the mid-60's and that only allowed Catholics to eat meat on Friday. Change - way too radical for the Pope.

That's it then - Pope Endorses McCain! You heard it here first.

Bosnia 1996 Part Deux

As more details come out concerning the former First Lady's trip to Bosnia the entire affair reads more and more like an SNL skit. Evidenced by the fact that accompanying Mrs. Clinton on her trip through the heart of darkness were her stalwart companions Cheryl Crow and Sinbad! No, not Sinbad the Sailor, who could kick some legendary ass, but Sinbad the Comedian. You know, Sinbad, the guy that was on the Cosby spin-off, did a terrible Christmas movie with the Governator. Yea, that guy!

When questioned about the incident, Sinbad was quoted in the Washington Post as saying, "What kind of president would say, 'Hey, man, I can't go 'cause I might get shot so I'm going to send my wife...oh, and take a guitar player and a comedian with you."

That might be the funniest line Sinbad has had for quite some time. (Coincidentally, the photo in the Post showed Sinbad kicking off the 2007 Wal-Mart shareholder's meeting, which might give you a clue as to his comedic talents.) It also demonstrates how ridiculous this entire episode has become. Seriously, is it possible to take anything the Clintons say at face value without a little voice in the back of your head going, "Is that really true?" All politicians tend to stretch the truth now and then, regardless of their party affiliations. But c'mon, this candidate is running on her experience and gravitas, insinuating that Obama is a light-weight compared to her. Does she actually have any experience or does Hillary count accepting bouquets from 12 year old Bosnia girls as a foreign policy engagement?

I Misspoke or How I Lied and Covered My Ass

Hillary Clinton admitted her Bosnian story was somewhat of an exaggeration when she said, "I misspoke." We've all done it, said something that wasn't quite true or remembered an incident that didn't quite happen the way we stated that it did. But is this a larger issue for Hillary? Is she continually exaggerating her "experience"? Take the Bosnian incident for example, There is not a chance, not one, that the Secret Service would expose Hillary or Chelsea Clinton to even the possibility of sniper fire. She actually deplaned and had an 8 year old girl hand her flowers on the tarmac. Now maybe she had forgotten the incident and didn't remember the little girl, that's possible.

What isn't possible is her forgetting that men and women in the Secret Service pledge their lives to the office of the President and to the First Family. For her to claim otherwise or misspeak is not only disingenuous but reveals a truly ugly character flaw in Hillary Clinton. Is she willing to say or do anything to get elected? Is her "experience" actually that she is a more experienced story teller than Obama? She certainly isn't a more experienced truth teller.

The Clinton campaign likes to whine and complain that the media treats her unfairly and isn't hard enough on Obama. In this case she's the one that got a free pass from the media. Maybe its because most of members of the media has the same "experience" as Hillary, an upper-class background with an Ivy League education and the most dangerous thing they've ever faced is harsh language.

The Roller Coaster

What happened to Obama's message of change? Lately it seems that other than changing preachers and real estate partners the "Change" message has gotten lost. Has the Obama campaign lost its way or is it that the media did a 180 after being justifiably lampooned on SNL? The man gave a very eloquent speech on race in America. He received the endorsement of one of the most influential Hispanics in America. Has it made any difference?



Hillary Clinton is now positioned to win Pennsylvania, possibly by double digits. What happens then? Can you nominate a candidate who doesn't have the necessary votes to capture the nomination outright and trails his GOP opponent in the national polls? A candidate who hasn't won a single Midwestern state other than his own yet still does lead in the delegate count? Tough choices ahead Howard Dean!



Has it only been a matter of weeks since the Iowa caucuses? I can't imagine what will happen between now and the end of the summer. This political season has already seen so many ups and downs that nothing would surprise me at this point. What happens if the Super Delegates can't come to a compromise? After all, they are going to decide who gets the nomination. Is it possible for the DNC to anoint a candidate without alienating a huge portion of its' own constituency? Is it possible that there could be a white knight waiting in the wings? Hmm...

And in this Corner....

I've started to think about the Democratic presidential race as a 50 round boxing match. (Okay, 48 if you don't count Michigan and Florida.) However, I think that notion might be too old school. This is turning into more of a winner take all steel cage death match. Only I think the Dems have forgotten they have to get right back into the cage with arguably the toughest SOB on the planet. John McCain may be old but you just can't question his tenacity. He survived 5 years in the Hanoi Hilton, you think Barack or Hillary's rhetoric is scaring him? You're right Hillary. it's 3AM and the phone's ringing; who do I want answering the phone - John McCain. Thanks for the free ad. I'm sure it will get plenty of air time come September and October.

Democrats Start to Worry

If your Howard Dean are you worried yet? I would be, especially if I looked at an Electoral College map and recent voter results. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in New York (expected), Ohio, Texas, and California. What if that continues into Pennsylvania and Indiana? Does that mean if Obama gets the nomination he can't carry those states in November? Not necessarily, but it's causing concern at the DNC. Howard can try and spin it anyway he wants but believe me, he's concerned.

Now look at Mississippi, Barack Obama won more than 90% of the African-American vote and Hillary won more than 70% of the white vote. Is that scaring the DNC? You bet it is. In November, the Democrats need all of their party members to turn out, both black and white. If Hillary gets the nod does that lead African-American voters to believe they have somehow been disenfranchised? If Obama receives the nomination do middle class white voters stay home?

And what's with the Hispanic voters? They don't seem to be too keen on Obama. What does that mean in Texas, New Mexico and California in November? Do they warm to the junior Senator from Illinois or do they put their support behind a fellow border state Senator? Don't think McCain can't win California. He can. The Governator might be able to help deliver it into the GOP fold.

Then there is New York. If Hillary is sitting on the sidelines, how popular are the Democrats going to be? George Pataki was just recently the two-term GOP Governor. When you factor in his replacement is (soon to be was) Elliot Spitzer you have to wonder if the GOP might even carry the Empire State. How can the "party of the people" spin the fact that their Governor might have spent as much as $80K on hookers? Tough sell to people struggling in a down economy. The GOP having a shot at New York - that was unthinkable just a short time ago.

The Democrats have a long and storied history of shooting themselves in the foot when it comes to capturing the White House - LBJ not telling his staff he wasn't going to run for re-election, Ed Muskie crying on the campaign trail, Thomas Eagleton forgetting to mention that he'd undergone electro-shock therapy, Gary Hart and "friend" aboard the yacht called "Monkey Business", Mike Dukakis wearing the helmet in the armored vehicle, Al Gore not carrying his home state. Howard Dean and the "Yee-Haw" scene. Need I go on?

If I'm Howard and the DNC I'm starting to worry and not just a little. Seriously, shouldn't it be simple to get the GOP out of office after eight years of George Bush?

And Then There Was One

John McCain. How did it happen that he became the GOP presidential nominee? Personally I like the choice. He's in the middle, he's not divisive like the Bush neo-cons and he will reach across the aisle as evidenced by the McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Bill. So why are all of the "right-wing" pundits so up in arms? Is it because their right-wing is somewhere to the right of Mussolini?

Is it possible that the Rush Limbaughs of the world think that they represent the Republican party? When I hear any of them talk about Ronald Reagan it makes me laugh. Reagan beat the most unpopular incumbent President in the second half of the 20th century by a very slim margin in 1980. He was re-elected four years later in a massive landslide. Why? Because he made the GOP the "big tent" party.

Reagan didn't alienate half the country. He didn't treat the Democrats as though they were idiots. He met regularly with the Speaker of the House, Tip O'Neill, who was the quintessential New England liberal. On more than one occasion I watched the Speaker walk down the White House driveway like an ordinary citizen. He didn't act like he should be chauffeured in a chariot down Constitution Avenue towards the Capitol. And neither did the President. They were men of the people.

I think that's a lesson that John McCain has already learned. He's a decent man who represents and lives the ideals of this country. I think that's what Middle America recognizes. And isn't capturing the middle ground the key to every Presidential election?

Your Vote Counts

You always hear that every vote counts. You want to believe it but the little voice in the back of your head tells you that in the grand scheme of things your vote doesn't really matter. Your vote does matter and I can prove it. I witnessed the power of one vote and the influence that one person can have.

I used to live in a growing suburb of Columbus, Ohio called Pickerington. One year while standing in line to vote I overheard a group of girls behind me who had come out to vote for what I believed was the first time. They weren't there because of presidential politics or some issue gripping the nation. They were there to vote for the local school levy, to support the system that they had recently graduated from.

Behind them in line was a former classmate, a guy. They traded teenage banter back and forth about high school. The half dozen girls were all there to vote for the levy, the guy was voting against it. One of the girls was outraged that this guy was not going to support their school, her school, so she decided to do something about it. She got out her cell phone and in the 30 to 45 minutes that we all stood in line she called everyone she knew. She implored them to get out and vote for the levy. The guy laughed and said something to the effect that she wasn't going to make any difference.

The next day when I looked for the levy results in the local paper I saw that it had indeed passed. The final margin, in a district where the total number of votes cast was five or six thousand, was 14. My guess is 14 teenage girls. This 18 or 19 year old girl had not only made her vote count but she changed the election results because she got involved.

It's Primary day - go out and vote. You can make a difference.

A Cautionary Tale

It's an exciting time. There is a politician with a big smile, new ideas, and a knack for connecting with the American people. He's promising change and a new way for politics and politicians to represent the real America, the middle class; To hold responsible those who have led us down the wrong road for the past eight year and to right those wrongs. It's infectious. The whole country is catching the fever and its spreading. With an unpopular President in the White House and a woefully ineffective Congress its time for an "outsider" to sweep in and change the world's perception of the United States.

I've heard this tale before. The first time I voted in a presidential election I couldn't wait to pull the lever. I was voting for change, for a fresh start, to sweep out the old and bring in a more youthful, more hopeful time. I wasn't necessarily voting for the candidate but for his ideals, his passion, his place in history representing a new generation.

Sound familiar? Four years later I realized that my exuberance needed to give way to more pragmatic thinking. That ideals and words are important, but that leadership demands experience and the ability to get things done. It means reaching across the aisle. It means knowing how Washington really works. It means being able to communicate to the American people that change requires action and sometimes those actions are painful. But that you have a plan - a real plan, not just rhetoric.

So if Barack gets you out to vote - God bless him. I hope that he isn't "all hat and no cattle" as characterized by Hillary Clinton. Because if he is then you'll be where I was after I voted for change - and Jimmy Carter.

GOP - It's Over, For Now

With Super Tuesday and the "Potomac Primaries" behind us one thing has become clear - it's over. McCain is going to be the nominee. Is there any purpose in Mike Huckabee continuing to run his race and come in second place? Huck can't win in Ohio and he won't stand much of a chance in Texas either so why continue to fight on? The only rationale I can can come up with for 2008 is that Huck continues to march in an effort to please the hardcore right wing of the party in hopes of future backing. If that's the only reason then it's time to stop.

Every Republican in this campaign continues to cite the Reagan influence and what he stood for. The reason he was successful was because people from all walks of life believed in him as a person and as a leader - not because he was from the right wing or the center. In 1980 Ronald Reagan narrowly defeated a very, very unpopular President in Jimmy Carter. Carter won the Presidency on a platform of "change" and a "new beginning" away from the ills of the Nixon/Ford White House and the shadows of Vietnam. I wonder if Huck sees that point of history as a parallel to today and continues to campaign not for 2008 but for 2012.

Why the GOP Needs Hillary

Barring a series of stunning upsets on Super Tuesday and beyond, John McCain seems to be the certain nominee for the GOP. Not that upsets can't happen. Every new primary brings to light public opinion polls that have proven to be widely inaccurate prior to the actual voting day. However, given the fact that Rudy is gone, and has since endorsed McCain, and the slew of other big name endorsements that McCain has received (including the Governator) it seems that the Straight Talking Express is on the path to victory. Victory in the primaries, yes, November may be a different story.

So why does John McCain need Hillary? He needs her to be the Democratic nominee because she's beatable. If Barack gets the nomination then it becomes a contest of experience versus a wave of change. Given the state of the economy and the public's disenchantment with Washington, I believe that the wave will become a tsunami and that the GOP will be swept out to sea.

On the other hand, Hillary represents old school politics and disappointment for a large block of democratic voters. Young and minority voters want Barack. If Hillary gets the nod then I believe they will stay home in November. And stay home in record numbers. Conversely if Hillary is the nominee, the GOP base will turn out in droves, not because they love McCain, which they clearly do not, but because they can't stand the thought of Hillary Clinton as President of the United States.

The GOP has always been adept at picking running mates that appeal to voters outside of the core constituency of the nominee. Big George called Ronald Reagan's fiscal ideas "voodoo economics". That didn't stop him from accepting the Veep spot. After all he became the first sitting Vice-President to win the Presidency since Martin Van Buren followed Andrew Jackson. That's a strong argument for getting in line. I wonder if Mike Huckabee has any problem with that? I doubt it. Think Barack would play second fiddle to Hillary? Not a chance. No way.

CNN Debates

I was out of the country for a week. One thing I didn't miss was another say nothing pissing contest between candidates - live on CNN. Whether its Barack and Hillary arguing about "Bill bashing" or McCain and Mitt dissecting timetable comments it doesn't really matter because no one cares! Get over yourselves and try to have a discussion a level above the second grade. What's next - a double dog dare?

Haven't any of these idiots figured out that the public wants change in not just how the country is supposed to work but in how our presidential candidates conduct themselves?

Tell us what you can do, not what someone else can't do based upon a comment they made to a reporter from The Onion in 1988. Do any of them have actual ideas to put forward. Seriously, I could spout off the same crap that all of them say and be just as credible - "We should balance the budget, cut spending, have affordable healthcare, and make friends with the rest of the world. And I'm the candidate to bring about all of these changes." Please, stop saying that! Tell us how, with your leadership, that is going to happen.

Ron Paul is starting to make more sense than anyone. Don't make me throw away my vote! Have a real debate - say something of substance. Let Lou Dobbs moderate. I can't take anymore of these vanilla CNN hosts. They act like they're auditioning for Entertainment Tonight. What's next? "Hi this is Mark McGrath and Mary Hart live from CNN Headquarters with tonight's Presidential Debate!"

It's the Economy, Stupid (Republicans) - Part II

If the economy becomes the overwhelming issue that voters are concerned with come November will either party choose their nominee based primarily on that issue? Did the GOP learn anything from the 1992 debacle when nobody really cared that George Bush Sr. (Big George) had just fought a very successful and dare I say it, popular war? I wonder.

Rudy is all about national security and 9/11. McCain's appeal is based on his foreign policy and military experiences. Fred - does it matter? Huck - I'm not sure what his appeal is other than his religious convictions and quick wit. He, more than any other candidate, probably has the most room to craft his campaign around new or "more" relevant issues. That leaves Mitt.

Will Romney's extensive business experience pay off or will he be portrayed as someone, like Big George, that doesn't know the price of a loaf of bread? I saw a quote recently where he termed anyone making less than $200K as "middle class". I don't know if that quote is accurate but perception is reality. That definition may by true in Manhattan or on Capitol Hill but it's not true in the Heartland. It's not true in Michigan either but Mitt seems to have gotten his message across there. So is Romney the Republican economic candidate? He can always get a more senior foreign policy guy on the ticket with him. It worked for W.

Mitt Manhandles McCain

Mitt is back in the race! Three major tests with three different winners. That begs the question - does SC matter at all? You would think that it would give the winner a little momentum going into Super Tuesday. But, is that the case? None of the prior events seem to have carried over to the next one.

Is Rudy right, that only Super Tuesday really matters and that everything before it is somehow irrelevant? We're about to find out. In the last 40 years has there been a primary season like this one where neither party has a clear front runner? Fascinating! Let's hope that this years conventions don't turn into a rerun of 1968 Chicago. Although if somebody roughed up Wolf Blitzer (ala Dan Rather) on the convention floor it wouldn't bother me too much. Actually, it would be must-see TV!

I'm out of the country next week. I wonder if anything will be different by the time I return. Will Barack or Hillary be on the ropes - according to the mainstream media? Will Mike Bloomberg get off the fence and become the third rail? Will Rudy actually be a viable candidate? Will Dennis the Menace get his recount in New Hampshire? Will we even care?

Romney in Michigan

So what happens if Romney falters in the state where his father was the three-term governor? Does he pack it in? It seems to be a given that Romney won't win in SC either and that in fact he may do no better than third in the Palmetto State. Should he keep spending money and think that he will rise like the mythical phoenix on Super Tuesday? I don't think so. That strategy belongs to Rudy and may not be working for him. One candidate using that approach is risky enough. Being the second guy in would be suicidal.

So Mitt, it's do or die. Either win one for dear old dad or go home and salvage your career. You're a relatively young man. You've learned some lessons. Nothing says this is the end of Mitt politically. It's just the end in 2008. Ironically enough, in Michigan, where it all started.

Michigan Musings

Why are the Democrats passing on one of the most important Midwestern states? Supposedly they are punishing Michigan for moving up their primary date. So none of the Dem candidates are going to campaign in the state with one of the worst long-term economic outlooks in the entire country. Isn't this election all about the economy? Does it make any sense for them to bypass Michigan? The primary is still going to be held. The Republicans are all going to be there. You can still vote if you're a registered Democrat. The catch is that the only name on the ballot is Hillary Clinton. Pretty sneaky. I wonder whos is shedding tears now.

The Obama/Edwards strategy now is to get Dems out to vote and to cast a ballot for uncommitted. Otherwise all of the delegates are going to go to Hillary. So if it comes down to a floor fight at the Convention is the Democratic National Committee going to prohibit Michigan delegates from attending and then voting? Seriously, is that the plan Howard?

"Let's all come together in unity and change politics forever, in these 49 states!"

New Hampshire

GOP
John McCain won fairly easily. I think he was projected the winner about Noon yesterday. Wow. Other than McCain's Lazarus like-like comeback I'm not sure what surprised me more. The fact that Romney can't get his next door neighbors to vote for him or that Rudy ran neck-and-neck with Ron Paul. Does the GOP have a viable national candidate? I mean someone that can get voters to turn out for them? I'm not sure. So far the Dems are coming out in droves. They have a street fight brewing. But doesn't the GOP also have a hotly contested race. Why no excitement? So lets see how they currently stand:

McCain - Viable. People like his maverick ways. But will conservatives vote for someone perceived as soft on immigration and not a real "party" man? Plus, if the youth vote is important in '08 (and that's not a given - remember the "Deaniacs") will younger voters go for a guy who would be the oldest elected President ever? Older than even Ronald Reagan. I need a little bit more inspiration John.

Romney - Lots of money! Not very exciting. Seems to believe that the old GOP attack ad method is going to work for him. So far it hasn't. He may win Michigan though. His dad was governor, he was born there and has a solid organization. I'm not saying he's a favorite son but he may pull it off. Then what? Does Mitt become the front-runner?

Huckabee - Don't discount this guy. Southern governors have made it to the Oval Office recently, albeit from the other party - Clinton & Carter. If he can broaden his base past the Christian Coalition he may have legs. Interesting guy. Driven. Know anyone else that used to be obese, lost more than 100 lbs and started running marathons? You don't do that without singular determination. He's going to be a factor. Plus, he has Chuck Norris. Is there a Secretary of Ass Kickin' cabinet position? If not, there should be.

Rudy, Rudy, Rudy - President of 9/11. Believes that all he has to do is survive to Super Tuesday. He might be right. If Mitt takes Michigan and McCain or Huck win SC doesn't that throw it wide open? We've already seen comebacks by other candidates. Why not Rudy? It could happen. I can see him winning New York and Florida.

Fred - Hang in there. The writer's strike is almost over.

Ron Paul - God love you! Although if you do the Ralph Nader thing in November you may have to move in with OJ 'cause everybody is gonna' hate your ass.

DEMS
Okay, so you want change but maybe not that much. Was that the message last night? Or do older women want one of their own elected before their too old to care? (I know that sounds cruel but I'm "old" too so I can say that). Another remarkable comeback. CNN had Hillary dead and buried. I love watching Wolf explain why they were so wrong and then won't make a projection call until every other media outlet has already done so. Courage! And you wonder why FOX is killing you in the ratings. Somebody over there other than Lou Dobbs needs to grow a pair.

So where does that leave the Donkeys? Wide, wide open.

Hillary & Barack - Too close to call. Completely fascinating race. But will it play out past Super Tuesday? Will it take all of their energy before the general election campaign really gets started? Right now either one of them would have to be considered a heavy favorite in November. But it's January. Long way to go. Really long way.

John Edwards - It might be time to start packing it in. You definitely need to at least write a second speech. Something besides the little girl who died because of Big Insurance, the 50 year old guy with the cleft pallette, and veterans sleeping under bridges. It's insulting! I'm a veteran and somehow I've avoided sleeping outdoors. Reminds me of the time I met Al Gore and he told me, "Welcome home!" Like I'd been wandering around Africa with the frickin' Foreign Legion. Get a grip Johnny and give us a reason to vote or go back to your mansion by the mill.

Richardson - You're in there! Keep playing the middle and your on the ticket. Seriously, you belong in Washington. I mean I like Albuquerque but it has to be a step down from living in Georgetown or Potomac. Admit it. You just want to be able to eat lunch with the cool kids. You can't do that in New Mexico.

Saturday's Debates

Like Obama, I too was watching football during the debates so I may have missed a word or two.

The GOP

Was it just me or did Mitt Romney look like he was ready to run to the principal's office and tattle on John McCain?

"I don't know what's with all the personal remarks?"

Mitt - you ran attack ads against a guy who spent 5 years as a POW and got the s**t beat out of him every day! Did you think he was just going to sit there and take it??? I don't know whether you are totally disingenuous or just stupid but either way I can't vote for you! From all of the recent polls results, most of New Hampshire can't either. It's the Granite State! You're lucky McCain didn't pelt you with a few.

Rudy, Rudy, Rudy - where are you guy? Super Tuesday is looking pretty far away.

Huck - Hang in there. South Carolina is positively full of bible thumpers. Third place in New Hampshire would be a coup and looks doable.

Fred - Please, either run for President or go home. Just don't stand there and take up space.

Ron Paul - He makes sense in a 1970ish utopian sort of way. I'll bet he still owns a bong. I like the guy. Wouldn't vote for him in a million years but he does say some smart things.

The Dems
Did anyone else hear the strains of "Street Fightin Man" playing in the background during Hillary's response to the Edwards-Obama double team? WOW! Angry woman alert!

"I just don't talk about change! F**kers!"

I'm pretty sure after her little tirade that if she would've started walking towards either one of them, they both would have been in Vermont by nightfall or at least out of town by sun-up. And I thought John Edwards was the only one who took this campaign personally.

BTW - How many times did Edwards say that? Is his Dad still working in the mill? You would think the guy just came off a double shift, stubbed out his Lucky Strike in the parking lot and walked into the debate. C'mon your a multi-millionaire laywer, John. Talk about what you would do, not what your grandma did or how you co-sponsored one piece of legislation (that never passed through the House) during your Senate career. Put some fire with the smoke because Obama's got you beat on the agent-of-change thing. People like you. Give them a reason to vote for you.

Otherwise, Mrs. Clinton gonna slap you right out of the primary. She wants Barack one-on-one. And honestly, isn't that what we all really want to see? If they could only get Michael Buffer to moderate... Let get ready to rumble!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bill Richardson - still running a strong race for the Veep slot.

Can't wait until Tuesday and there's football tonight!

Iowa Dem results

Close but no cigar on my predictions. Obama. Obama. Obama. I actually thought that John Edwards' hard work was going to pay off. In retrospect, maybe it did. After all he did finish in front of Hillary. The story of the night was Obama's victory and not just by a little. If you saw his victory speech you had to feel good. The son of a girl from Kansas and a guy from Kenya. The "USA" chant. Political affiliation didn't matter. It make you feel good. Maybe that was the whole point.

Contrast that with the Hillary's "I'm Still in the Game" speech. "Look at all of these people from the 1990's lined up behind me. Don't we all look like losers. I can't believe I actually have to go to New Hampshire. Damn it, just make me President. Now. Please."

Lame.

Bill looked like he was hoping for another tsunami to hit so he could to catch the next flight out of town. He seemed tired and beaten. Now the pundits are tring to make Hillary the next "Comeback Kid". Only they forgot something - you need to be likeable. If you had the opportunity to hit Starbucks for just 10 minutes with one of the candidates would you pick Hillary? Would she even be in the top 5? She might be a really smart, experienced person. She's just not that likeable.

Edward's speech was just as impassioned as his campaigning. Is that enough? Probably not. This isn't 1968. He's not Bobby Kennedy. The working-class, union coalition just doesn't exist anymore. I appreciate the fact that his family worked so hard to give him a better life. I can identify with that from my own family experience. But that lifestyle and those types of jobs are never coming back. I feel his passion but unless he wins New Hampshire and then South Carolina I can't see him continuing. And he's not going to win South Carolina.

Iowa GOP Results

My Republican predictions were spot on with the exception that McCain technically finished fourth, 300 or 400 votes behind Fred Thompson. Chalk one up for Mr. Law & Order. Iowa has always had a serious religious bent. Combine that with Huckabee's superior personal skills and charismatic speaking ability and I can't see how this was such a big surprise to the media. Although, I don't live in Washington or New York so I'm not afflicted by Beltway or Manhattan myopia.

Seriously, did Mitt Romney seem credible in Iowa? The whole flannel shirt, I'm a regular guy approach seemed so false that it was laughable. He's a politician! He's from a political family. His father was governor of Michigan. He ran against Nixon for the White House. Did Mitt think that a bad Christmas gift from LL Bean was going to convince people that he's just a regular Joe? C'mon Mitt you're a multi-millionaire with the most extensive business background of anyone in either party. Why try and convince people you're a right wing hardliner with serious religious convictions? You were elected Governor of Massachusetts - home of the Kennedys and Tip O"Neal for God's sake. Stop attacking likeable Huck and get to work! Otherwise, see if you can join in the Mike Gravel - Dennis Kucinich cage match. (see Jan 2 post).

Iowa Predictions

Dems (Too close to call)
Edwards
Obama
Clinton

GOP (Closer than most people think)
Huckabee
Romney
McCain

Up First - Iowa

It's finally 2008 and just in time for our first presidential primary, er caucus, Iowa. So lets get to the rules - pay attention.

If you're a Republican it's fairly simple - you gather up all your friends, go to the designated coffeehouse, tavern, private home, etc; and prepare to listen to speeches. After you've been swayed, or not, you write down the name of your candidate on a piece of paper, stuff it in a ballot box and you're done! Its up to the Iowa state Republican party to count and accurately tally up the percentages for each candidate. C'mon we all know that Republicans can count votes. Didn't the GOP prove that in 2000?!

Now what happens if your guy wins? (sorry no women in the GOP caucus) Actually, not much. Unlike the Dems, the GOP winner in Iowa doesn't necessarily go on to New Hampshire and the nomination. In fact, Pat Robertson won the Iowa caucuses in 1988 beating out Bush Sr. That doesn't mean that Huckabee can't ride his folksy humor all the way to Pennsylvania Avenue or that Mitt can't parlay his millions into the Presidency. It simply meants that absent a "Yee-Haw" scene all of the viable GOP pols are still in the race. So take heart Rudy and John fans. Its far from over. Regardless of the sensationalistic spin that Wolf and team will pronounce on CNN or whatever death dirge Britt, Bill and company chant on Fox its just the beginning for the Grand Ol' Party. Stay tuned.

To the late (I mean that figuratively) Fred Thompson go back to TV. Law and Order is due for another spin-off and you were great on the original. Stick to it. Campaigning isn't your thing. For all you Ron Paul fans - nice try but pick someone who has a chance. If you don't know what else to do with your money, my buddy has a nice condo in Miami he's looking to offload.

If you're a Democrat - get out your rulebooks (all 70 some pages)! Make sure that Hillary or Barack/Oprah have lined up babysitting for you and have properly shoveled the driveway. Its time to caucus! Really, you don't need the rulebook. Remember 7th grade? It's sort of like that. You cram too many people into a small space and then listen to amateur orators harangue you into believing that their candidate is the best. Here's my favorite part - then you go to that section of the room where the other cool kids are hanging out to signify that you believe in your/their candidate. No secret ballot. No real voting - good ol' peer pressure - just like junior high. And you wondered why all those 19 year old "Deaniacs" folded four years ago. They couldn't take the pressure! Seriously, did you think that anyone could publicly support the socialist governor of Vermont to be President? C'mon John Kerry couldn't excite that many people to "vote" for him if his life depended on it. You knew something else happened.

Now what happens if your person wins? Hmm, if you're Hillary and victorious then the pundits will crow abour Barack's inexperience and the sobering opinions of those sensible Iowans. On to New Hampshire and Victory! Maybe. If you're Barack then its Camelot for a new generation and who cares about the Granite State. It's on to South Carolina and Victory! Maybe. If you're John Edwards you have to win the Corn Crib State. Hillary will win NH if she wins Iowa. Barack will win SC if he wins Iowa, you have to win something. Last stand at Cedar Rapids! Definitely.

Now what about AYO (all you others)? Go home. Now. Please. Don't wait for somebody to call you for the second slot either. Bill Richardson has been Ambassador to the UN; Talked that crazy North Korean out of going postal ; He's Hispanic. He's on the ticket. The rest of you go back to the Senate where you belong. Kucinich go back to Cleveland and keep the river from catching fire. Challenge Mike Gravel to a pay-per-view World's Angriest Man contest but quit running for President!

Well thats the view from the Heartland. Next up - New Hampshire.